If Iran's Supreme Leader dies, will it change anything?

October 15th, 2009
Michael Ledeen reported a few days ago that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—who has been in ill health for years—has fallen into a coma, with speculation that he may not recover. Ledeen notes that he has previously announced the death of Khamenei prematurely. That said, if the reports are true, will this be the death knell to a regime that has oppressed its citizens, is perceived as a threat by its neighbors, and also, through its support of Hezbollah and other groups, has promoted terror around the world? Or, will the government’s practices continue the status quo, under different stewards?

There are a number of possibilities. Among them:It’s been suggested that the power of Iran’s revolutionary guard exceeds that of the supreme leader, indicating much of the real power in Iran resides in a military institution that may not be poised for significant upheaval in the wake of Khamenei’s death.

Ledeen’s informant says that “a bloody clash will develop between the powers behind [Ayatollah Ali] Rafsanjani, who will immediately claim temporary religious authority and overall control, and the powers behind Ahmadinejad who will scramble in order to regain control and ensure their survival.”

It’s also possible that the whole concept of a “supreme leader” could be peacefully done away with in favor of a ruling council. This could thrust opposition figure Rafsanjani into a more dominant leadership position, given that he heads the council which elects the supreme leader. (The phrase ‘opposition figure’ is used here loosely. Rafsanjani is a man who, during the Iran-Iraq war, “ridiculed commanders because … [they] wanted to prohibit the families from sending their children to the front,” according to scholar Matthias Küntzel. Additionally, when Rafsanjani was president, Iran was already covertly pursuing its nuclear program.)

In light of this, one message to walk away with, from reports of Khamenei’s death—if they are true—is that euphoria—if any—should be at best muted and short-lived. Vigilance will still be needed against a government that has shown itself to be a threat to many of its own citizens and to other states; in the advent of the death of its supreme leader, there is reason to suggest the situation would not necessarily change dramatically for the better.

Whether one is a policy maker or a grass-roots activist, there is still much that needs to be done. Among the groups active on these issues are the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran and the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Author: michael1