By Robert Spencer
February 15, 2011
Everyone is excited about the toppling of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. “This is a moment of huge opportunity,” enthused one noted analyst. Another agreed: “We will soon see a new Middle East materializing.” The two analysts in question are Tony Blair and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad—and that sums up the reigning confusion about what exactly has happened in Egypt, and what is likely to happen next.
Blair opined that “this is a moment of huge opportunity, not just for Egypt,” but for the entire Middle East. “Despite all those challenges,” Blair added, “this is a moment when the whole of the Middle East could pivot and face towards change and modernization and democracy.”
Maybe. Ahmadinejad, however, is envisioning a wholly different scenario. He predicted that “we will soon see a new Middle East materializing without America and the Zionist regime, and there will be no room for world arrogance [that is, the West] in it.”
So who’s right? Will Egypt become a Western-style pluralistic democracy, with equal rights for women, as well as for its sizable and embattled Christian minority? Or was Muslim Brotherhood spokesman Ahmad Mersi correct when he declared that the Egyptian people want the rule of Islamic law?
Over the course of Egypt’s revolution, the mainstream media has been intent on downplaying the popularity of the Muslim Brotherhood. Egyptian presidential contender Mohamed ElBaradei also minimized both the Brotherhood’s commitment to the draconian elements of Islamic law and its popularity, saying, “This is total bogus that the Muslim Brotherhood are religiously conservative. They are no way extremists. They are no way using violence. They are not a majority of the Egyptian people. They will not be more than maybe 20 percent of the Egyptian people.”
ElBaradei’s claim that the Brotherhood is not “religiously conservative,” although echoed by Obama’s clueless intelligence chief, James Clapper, is ridiculous on its face, and contradicted by numerous statements of past and present Brotherhood leaders, including Mersi. Nonetheless, the Brotherhood has an 80-year history in Egypt, and in the course of 80 years, one may make a lot of enemies—soElBaradei’s lowballing of the Brotherhood’s likely post-Mubarak support within the country may not be very far off the mark.
Nonetheless, it may be able to steer post-Mubarak events in Egypt its way precisely because it is the foremost exponent of political Islam in Egypt. A Pew Research Center survey conducted in Egypt in spring 2010 found that no fewer than 85% of Egyptians thought that Islam was a positive influence in politics. Fifty-nine per cent said they identified with “Islamic fundamentalists” in their struggle against “groups who want to modernize the country,” which had the support of only 27% of Egyptians. Only 20% were “very concerned” about “Islamic extremism” within Egypt.
In light of all that, it may seem puzzling that 59% of Egyptians affirmed that “democracy is preferable to any other kind of government.” But while Westerners may assume that democracy refers in all cases to the implementation of Jeffersonian principles of limited government, tolerance, the free press, and popular accountability, all too often nowadays it has been reduced to mere head-counting—and in Egypt as well as elsewhere in the Middle East, the advocates of political Islam are the ones who have the heads.
That’s why Mohammad-Javad Larijani, secretary-general of the ironically named Iranian High Council for Human Rights, was able to express unqualified support for the Egyptian uprising: “In my opinion, the Islamic Republic of Iran should see these events without exception in a positive light.” He characterized the already-toppled Ben Ali government in Tunisia as “anti-Islamic,” and predicted that soon Tunisians would have a “people’s government.” And in Egypt, Larijani said, “Muslims are more active in political agitation and, God willing, they will establish the regime that they want.”
The regime they want, by all indications, is an Islamic one. A Kerensky-style interregnum featuring an uneasy democratic coalition enjoying little popular support may follow Mubarak, or the military may clamp down entirely on the protests. But if the Egyptian people are allowed to express their will, almost certainly an Islamic regime will follow—with consequences that should give even Tony Blair reason to regret his enthusiasm.
Mr. Spencer is director of Jihad Watch and author of The Politically Incorrect Guide to Islam (and the Crusades), The Truth About Muhammad, Stealth Jihad and The Complete Infidel's Guide to the Koran (all from Regnery-a HUMAN EVENTS sister company).
By Robert Spencer
February 15, 2011
Everyone is excited about the toppling of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. “This is a moment of huge opportunity,” enthused one noted analyst. Another agreed: “We will soon see a new Middle East materializing.” The two analysts in question are Tony Blair and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad—and that sums up the reigning confusion about what exactly has happened in Egypt, and what is likely to happen next.
Blair opined that “this is a moment of huge opportunity, not just for Egypt,” but for the entire Middle East. “Despite all those challenges,” Blair added, “this is a moment when the whole of the Middle East could pivot and face towards change and modernization and democracy.”
Maybe. Ahmadinejad, however, is envisioning a wholly different scenario. He predicted that “we will soon see a new Middle East materializing without America and the Zionist regime, and there will be no room for world arrogance [that is, the West] in it.”
So who’s right? Will Egypt become a Western-style pluralistic democracy, with equal rights for women, as well as for its sizable and embattled Christian minority? Or was Muslim Brotherhood spokesman Ahmad Mersi correct when he declared that the Egyptian people want the rule of Islamic law?
Over the course of Egypt’s revolution, the mainstream media has been intent on downplaying the popularity of the Muslim Brotherhood. Egyptian presidential contender Mohamed ElBaradei also minimized both the Brotherhood’s commitment to the draconian elements of Islamic law and its popularity, saying, “This is total bogus that the Muslim Brotherhood are religiously conservative. They are no way extremists. They are no way using violence. They are not a majority of the Egyptian people. They will not be more than maybe 20 percent of the Egyptian people.”
ElBaradei’s claim that the Brotherhood is not “religiously conservative,” although echoed by Obama’s clueless intelligence chief, James Clapper, is ridiculous on its face, and contradicted by numerous statements of past and present Brotherhood leaders, including Mersi. Nonetheless, the Brotherhood has an 80-year history in Egypt, and in the course of 80 years, one may make a lot of enemies—soElBaradei’s lowballing of the Brotherhood’s likely post-Mubarak support within the country may not be very far off the mark.
Nonetheless, it may be able to steer post-Mubarak events in Egypt its way precisely because it is the foremost exponent of political Islam in Egypt. A Pew Research Center survey conducted in Egypt in spring 2010 found that no fewer than 85% of Egyptians thought that Islam was a positive influence in politics. Fifty-nine per cent said they identified with “Islamic fundamentalists” in their struggle against “groups who want to modernize the country,” which had the support of only 27% of Egyptians. Only 20% were “very concerned” about “Islamic extremism” within Egypt.
In light of all that, it may seem puzzling that 59% of Egyptians affirmed that “democracy is preferable to any other kind of government.” But while Westerners may assume that democracy refers in all cases to the implementation of Jeffersonian principles of limited government, tolerance, the free press, and popular accountability, all too often nowadays it has been reduced to mere head-counting—and in Egypt as well as elsewhere in the Middle East, the advocates of political Islam are the ones who have the heads.
That’s why Mohammad-Javad Larijani, secretary-general of the ironically named Iranian High Council for Human Rights, was able to express unqualified support for the Egyptian uprising: “In my opinion, the Islamic Republic of Iran should see these events without exception in a positive light.” He characterized the already-toppled Ben Ali government in Tunisia as “anti-Islamic,” and predicted that soon Tunisians would have a “people’s government.” And in Egypt, Larijani said, “Muslims are more active in political agitation and, God willing, they will establish the regime that they want.”
The regime they want, by all indications, is an Islamic one. A Kerensky-style interregnum featuring an uneasy democratic coalition enjoying little popular support may follow Mubarak, or the military may clamp down entirely on the protests. But if the Egyptian people are allowed to express their will, almost certainly an Islamic regime will follow—with consequences that should give even Tony Blair reason to regret his enthusiasm.
Mr. Spencer is director of Jihad Watch and author of The Politically Incorrect Guide to Islam (and the Crusades), The Truth About Muhammad, Stealth Jihad and The Complete Infidel's Guide to the Koran (all from Regnery-a HUMAN EVENTS sister company).
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Who let the Muslims into EU to begin with?
I completely agree with the above conclusions. Great comparison to Kerensky too. This is what is going on in Egypt and all other West-friendly Muslim nations in the Middle East - mostly destabilized by the utopian wishes of the EU and the US. Political Islam as Marxism-Leninism is a totalitarian system of beliefs, providing the tactical tools to grab and keep the power "in the name of the people" (or God as applicable to the audience). Ahmadinejad as Khamenei (they have been helped by the revolutionary/communist type theories of Mawdudi and by the Communist branch of PLO - the FPLP - in their successful endeavor after Jimmy Carter dropped the Shah and Western Europe supplied Khomeini from his exile in France) behind him are the heads of a collective state-party system with unlimited powers to physically destroy large number of "enemies" that endanger its existence. You cannot blame a single person (like Mubarak or Salleh) and after their fall to install an Islamic regime. Only a major economic crisis and a mass revolt with matching violence can destroy the regime of the Mullahs. Or a US/Israely bombing of the Iranian nuclear facilities and the infrastructure of the Revolutionary guard. This should have had happen longtime ago. All those Muslim immigrants poring in Europe will deepen even more the economic crisis there and will enlarge the ranks of the jihadists, trying to overwhelm Western societies by attrition, agressive arrogance and ultimately home grown terror. The future does not look bright to me.
A Pew Research Center survey conducted in Egypt in spring 2010 found that no fewer than 85% of Egyptians thought that Islam was a positive influence in politics. Fifty-nine per cent said they identified with “Islamic fundamentalists” in their struggle against “groups who want to modernize the country,” which had the support of only 27% of Egyptians. Only 20% were “very concerned” about “Islamic extremism” within Egypt.
I guess the world will find out soon enough....
Before we all stand up and cheer regarding the uprisings spreading like an uncontained communicable plague throughout the Middle East, perhaps we ought to demand a definition of what those terms mean to the demonstrators in those countries, and what emerging leaders envision, since the majority of their populations are Islamic. We are being told the demonstrators are all clamoring for "reforms and freedoms." But what form will such take? Will those nations become "Democratic" Republics of Islam? That type of regime change has already been tried in Iran, egged-on by the West, and look where it is now,--still experiencing uprisings, dissent, racism, and anti-religious sentiments against anyone not Islamic! Are those ideals actually democratic, or does the term "democracy" to the Islamic mindset mean the "freedom" to become more oppressively Islamic at the expense of, the persecution of, and deadly threats against people of all non-Islamic religious persuasions within their borders? And, what about already declared promises to negate the Peace Treaties with Israel? Will a "changed" Middle East develop into increased Anti-Semitism?
And what about women's rights. So-called democratic reforms in Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, and likely soon to arise within "democratic" Turkey are clamping down on women, threatening or demanding they cover up in public or face severe reprisals if non-compliant! What kind of freedom and human rights is that?!
Also, democratic reform does not automatically ensure an alignment with the West! Turkey is now more aligned with Iran, Syria, Russia, and North Korea than with the West! With Hizbullah gaining the upper manipulative hand in Lebanon, Iran is making major power inroads, and becoming more threatening especially toward Israel. Hizbullah appears to be de-facto an extension of the Iranian Islamized military! Ditto Hamas in Gaza.
To deflect rioters from raising their heads too seriously in Libya, Gadaffi is calling for the demonstrators throughout the Middle East to change tactics to amass along all of Israel's borders to confront Israel with their demands toward the formation of a Palestinian State, or promise more drastic confrontation to bring about his version of "Peace."
So, sorry, I cannot heartily embrace what is currently unfolding. It all appears to be orchestrated by Iran and anti-Israel Islamic factions, and is spreading too quickly and too easily from one country to another. There would seem to be Islamic manipulative rats running throughout the whole woodpile!
Do reforms need to become reality for the common citizens of these countries where oppressive regimes have held power for so long? Absolutely! But lets be wary of what may very well instead develop! "Peace, peace, then sudden destruction"!??
Hi there,
If we look into the muslim world, what do we see actually ? Please ask yourselves and look hard and then see again all the news that are reaching the coffee shops the tea shop and the world news.
The world does not really care to know - Yes. The obama is just another same muslim jab in the world - look this man did not resolved his true identity - as is he a christian or is he not /
His actions appears to be like that of a hidden mole.
Still what is elected is there to be ?
Does the USA do their best to promote this muslim peace or do USA put down this muslim peace?????
Where is the muslim peace ?
All these countries that do support large population of muslims like the USA, France, Britian, Germany, Holland, Denmark, Sweden, Spain etc - JUST LOOK AT THESE COUNTRIES.
What happened.
All those place that you see most muslims - what do you see - make your own conclusion.--
All are slums and all decay except one think - All terrorist and all wanting to make their own rules, their own social set-ups like all the men sit around and sip tea and coffee will the woman to work and be slaves.
These muslims then set out to exploit the social services - don't work claim social services, give birth to many many babies. No school never mind - exploit the system.
Easy blamed the Goverment not supporting them - did not give work and did not provide jobs.
What can you the Goverment do for them - All things free as these lots of muslims does not want to go to schools, go for training, go for up grading - these blokes want to stretch out their hands for free food, everything the state must give them so that they are FREE to eat and bite the hand that feed them.
Look you will realise that they only do one thing.
Build mosques their so called temple - then all mass around on fridays and to demonstrate for equal right etc -
But what rights do they have when in reality, they do not change their ways to be assimilated into the countries they go into - they maintain a set of different rules and ecpect the host countries to take up their rules as a right when their so called muslim rules are totally alien to the host country.
They are the virus that invade and eat up the countries that accepted them out of pity or kindness.
What do they really contribute ??? They inflated the Government's lossess and increase the tax payers burden to house them feed them free them from bondage and keep free housing) to feed them and their endless demands while refusing to work and be one of the same british, american working to their own keeps.
How to work long in the company ?? when all the time report sick, report that they have their religion to go to, report that they cannot do overtime, report that they have to eat differently, that they have to have different canteen for themselves, that they have to have different toilet from the females and their english friens as they need running water to wash themselves and cannot use tissues.
They have all kinds of exceptions while thier own host countries do not have any exceptions ???? Only the host countries must provide for them.
They do not speak your language so we have to double up every thing - in other words pay thing twice over as one printing in one language cost less then doing it twice etc.
So whats so great about all these immigrants??
Do they really deserve these status as friends, friendly workers ??? Do they??
OR rather they are the enemies of your very institutions you hold dear???
All these muslim speak of sensitives to their world but did they show any ??
These muslims want to build a muslim temple right next to the 9/11 memorial,
is this sensitive to other, ???
ALL MINE ALL MINE - that tanslate to "ME" ME" ME my muslim world.
WHAT HAPPEN TO THE CHRISTIAN WORLD today ????